The first thing to realize is why Mr. Market is feeling so frisky. It’s a presidential election year, and that has almost always brought expansion and higher stock values. Second, inflation is low and economic growth is reasonable. Third, corporate profits have exceeded expectations and are on track for growth of maybe 5%. Just fine. Unemployment in the US is at a 50-year low. Consumer confidence and spending there are robust. Real estate is on a roll, but not in a bubble. The China trade deal is just days away. The central bank has dropped rates, adding stimulus, three times. And now if the White House and Tehran can stop being bellicose and pissy, Middle-East stability is closer. Meanwhile higher – but not extreme – oil prices help Canada without whacking consumers. And investors think the pro-growth, lower-tax, less-reg American president will be re-elected.
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