While Giroux says the carbon rebates are broadly progressive — lower income households receive higher net transfers than higher income ones — households composed of adults get higher rebates per person than those with children.
The amount a family pays in carbon taxes is also impacted by factors they have no control over — for example how their province produces electricity and how carbon-intensive their economy is.
Finally, Giroux’s calculations are based on the assumption the Trudeau government will keep its carbon tax revenue neutral, whereas other jurisdictions that started out with a revenue-neutral carbon tax — for example, British Columbia — eventually abandoned revenue neutrality.
What is clear is that Trudeau’s carbon tax is a huge generator of revenue for the government, rising from $2.9 billion annually in this fiscal year to an estimated $8.45 billion annually in 2024.
